Most losing streaks are not caused by bad trades. They are caused by good trades executed in the wrong regime. The strategy did not break — the environment did.
Four signals that a regime is turning
- Correlation matrix compresses — everything moves together
- Realised volatility diverges from implied for more than 5 sessions
- Session-open ranges expand while daily ranges stay flat
- Cross-asset carry unwinds without a clear catalyst
"The market does not warn you it is changing. It just stops paying you for what worked yesterday."— N. Petrova, COO
// Rule
When two of the four signals fire in the same week, halve your position sizing until the picture clears. Cash is a position.