For most of 2025, perp funding sat flat. The basis trade — long spot, short perp — was crowded, cheap, and quiet. In the last two weeks, funding flipped positive across six venues almost simultaneously. That is not noise.
What the curve is saying
Positive funding on this scale usually reflects one of two things: leveraged directional demand, or a temporary imbalance between spot and derivative flows. Our correlation matrix leans toward the second — which historically opens a short-lived, capital-efficient arbitrage window.
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The window closes when funding normalises. Historically that has taken 6–14 days. Position sizing matters more than direction.